Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 15.139888 18.471235 22.196910 26.648249 31.796542 37.538098 44.398756
2025-02-16 10.301308 14.568676 19.901729 26.946610 35.887900 46.731786 60.737864
2025-02-23 7.505257 11.980060 18.090141 26.804881 38.646141 53.885673 74.648845
2025-03-02 5.579217 9.947637 16.403028 26.239286 40.387488 59.496018 86.657759
2025-03-09 4.362562 8.609307 15.346023 26.218264 42.629106 65.696787 99.635147
2025-03-16 3.178863 6.999007 13.529482 24.707803 42.413160 68.292582 107.650927
2025-03-23 2.693379 6.477435 13.339602 25.629409 45.813354 76.180347 123.492422
2025-03-30 2.127417 5.646369 12.453564 25.248601 47.075049 80.906489 134.929490
2025-04-06 1.880837 5.403347 12.573159 26.561159 51.118196 90.038784 153.328808
2025-04-13 1.352117 4.373528 10.999385 24.633657 49.555634 90.291343 158.204349
2025-04-20 1.151927 4.065946 10.808384 25.211776 52.283066 97.469958 174.078416
2025-04-27 0.964095 3.729509 10.490963 25.490600 54.473299 103.858086 188.963331
2025-05-04 0.788891 3.394668 10.177906 25.871261 57.127233 111.587461 207.100665
2025-05-11 0.649779 3.117550 9.955805 26.437936 60.233628 120.379061 227.618381
2025-05-18 0.507817 2.760198 9.452357 26.319315 62.000315 126.942758 244.761657
2025-05-25 0.381514 2.384370 8.802858 25.763614 62.827109 131.860439 259.333970
2025-06-01 0.298777 2.129634 8.416163 25.743020 64.698852 138.720821 277.495620
2025-06-08 0.201841 1.729351 7.485876 24.254906 63.366017 139.599631 285.286600
2025-06-15 0.171836 1.646434 7.515363 25.162854 67.183870 150.261400 310.721584
2025-06-22 0.127673 1.439370 7.077039 24.787678 68.164551 155.582231 326.844309
2025-06-29 0.113304 1.411674 7.253425 26.080888 72.949724 168.447320 357.060607
2025-07-06 0.069479 1.109625 6.328621 24.181863 70.316323 166.691019 360.547203
2025-07-13 0.056498 1.039505 6.273033 24.751398 73.441954 176.476295 385.681862